International Forecasts and Simulations

General Information
Room: 
102
ECTS: 
5
Number of Hours: 
30
Wednesday 15:30 - 17:00
Preliminary requirements: 

International Relations Theories, Contemporary International Relations (with political and economic parts).

A student should be familiar with basic concepts or IR including core elements of leading IR theories. He or she should possess general knowledge of current issues in world politics.

Course Description: 
  1. Theories of IR and Forecasting
  2. Basic terms of forecasting. Types and divisions of prognoses. Deductive and inductive approach. Forecasting and planning.
  3. Quantitative methods of forecasting  (incl. time-series, extrapolation)
  4. Qualitative methods of forecasting (incl. analogies, scenarios, heuristic modelling)
  5. Delphi method in forecasting
  6. Foresight as a forecasting method
  7. Simulation – theory and practice
Aims of the course: 

Student has complex knowledge regarding various research  methods of IR and their application to forecasting.

Student describes complex relations between different areas of internal state policy, its foreign policy and international setting that enables him to make good diagnosis of the situation

Student explains systemic nature of social, political, economic and cultural events; their specificity and inter-connections.

Student identifies civilizational trends in current world affairs.

Student has deepened knowledge on various methods of international forecasting, including qualitative and quantitative enabling him to create his or hers own forecasts.

 

Student explains the impact of trends in the international surrounding on the forecasted subject

Student analyses and anticipates the evolution of international system and its components, including issues like global political, economic, social trends, possible resolution of conflicts and the behaviour of international actors (states, international organisations etc.)

Student builds complex qualitative forecasts in the field od IR using various techniques

Student critically evaluates different forecasts with regards to their research quality as well as their accuracy.

Student designs simulation models in order to forecast an event.

Student uses software tools to prepare quantitative forecasts in the field of IR.

 

Student participates in group work and is able to collectively prepare a solution of a given forecasting problem.

Student assesses probability of occurrence of various events in IR basing own facts, opinions and forecasts.

Student prepares and explains in public his own opinion regarding the future using proper methodology.

Teaching methods: 

Introductory lecture with multimedia presentation, discussion; case study analysis, simulations and modelling; group work, essay.

Evaluation & Completion: 

Presence: 25%, discussion participation 25%, individual forecast (essay) 25%, group work (forecast presentation) 25%. For each of the parts student receives points. In order to pass, he or she must obtain 8 out of 20 points possible to collect throughout the semester.

Basic Literature: 

-        J. Scott Armstrong (ed.) (2001), Principles of Forecasting. A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, Springer. Philadelphia.   

-        J. Scott Armstrong (1985), Long-Range Forecasting. From Crystal Ball to Computer, available on-line at: http://www.forecastingprinciples.com

-        Roger B. Myerson (2007), Force and Restraint In Strategic Deterrence: A Game-Theorist’s Perspective, available at: http://www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil/

-        Gene Rowea, George Wrightb (1999), The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis, “International Journal of Forecasting” 15, pp. 353–375.

-        Scenarios Europe 2010. Five Possible Futures For Europe, Gilles Bertrand (Coord.), Anna Michalski, Lucio R. Pench, European Commission, Forward Studies Unit, Working Paper, July 1999.

-        D. W. Bunn; M. M. Mustafaoglu (Nov., 1978), “Forecasting Political Risk”, Management Science, Vol. 24, No. 15., pp. 1557-1567.

-        John R. Freeman; Brian L. Job, (Mar., 1979), “Scientific Forecasts in International Relations: Problems of Definition and Epistemology”, International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 23, No. 1., pp. 113-143.

-        Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong (2007), “Structured analogies for forecasting”, International Journal of Forecasting 23, pp. 365–376

Additional Literature: 

Jennifer Werner, 2nd February 2035, „Wroclaw International Review”, No. 3-4/2009, Year III, pp. 75-80.

 

On-line resources:

http://www.google.com/publicdata/directory?hl=en&dl=en